China 2020

“China 2020” presents three alternate future scenarios based on different trajectories China might follow out to 2020: “Fragmentation,” the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faces escalating demands from a range of actors who have slowly chipped away at its legitimacy and capacity, placing the very survival of the CCP in question; “Strong State,” having engaged its best and brightest to successfully address the many challenges faced by China, the CCP remains highly autocratic, making extensive use of technology to improve government performance and suppress dissent; and “Partial “Democracy,” the CCP is able to maintain a powerful position only by accommodating greater popular demand for openness and participation in shaping China’s political and economic agenda. The narratives were developed based on insights shared by some of the most knowledgeable China observers in the field, at an intensive, daylong workshop convened at the CGA in October 2009.

China 2020 Scenerio


The China 2020 workshop and report included input from several leading minds in Chinese and global policy, including Daniel Ahn, Director of Macroeconomic and Portfolio Strategies Research, Louis Capital Markets; Nayan Chanda, Director of Publications, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization; David Denoon, Professor of Politics and Economics at New York University; John Frankenstein, Associate Professor, Brooklyn College, City University of New York; Taylor Fravel, Cecil & Ida Green Career Development Associate Professor of Political Science, MIT; Dru Gladney, President, Pacific Basin Institute at Pomona College; François Godement, Professor of Political Science, Institut d’Études Politiques, Paris; Roberto Herrera-Lim, Director, Asia Practice, Eurasia Group; Nazrul Islam, Senior Economics Affairs Officer, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations; Cheng Li, Director of Research, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution; James Mulvenon, Director, Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis, Defense Group, Inc; Stephen Orlins, President, National Committee on United States-China Relations; Dudley Poston, Professor of Sociology, Abell Endowed Professor of Liberal Arts, Texas A&M University; Adam Segal, Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow for China, Council on Foreign Relations; Julian Wong, Senior Policy Analyst, Center for American Progress; Geng Xiao, Professor at the School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing; Qiang Xiao, Director, China Internet Project; and Wei Zhang, Lecturer in Chinese Economy, University of Cambridge, England.


Source: NYU